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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.