A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."